廠家提供信息       在國家發展(zhan)研(yan)究中(zhong)心(xin)主辦的中(zhong)國發展(zhan)高層論壇上(shang)，世(shi)界銀(yin)行首(shou)席(xi)執(zhi)行官克(ke)里(li)斯塔利娜·格奧(ao)爾基耶娃和(he)亞洲開發銀(yin)行行長中(zhong)尾武彥分別(bie)從不同角(jiao)度闡(chan)述了他們認(ren)為當前中(zhong)國面臨三大挑戰。

       克里斯塔利娜·格(ge)奧(ao)爾基耶娃說(shuo)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)部門(men)面臨三(san)大(da)挑(tiao)(tiao)戰。格(ge)奧(ao)爾基耶娃表示，金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)部門(men)改革與(yu)(yu)發展始(shi)終(zhong)是中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)進步的(de)(de)組成(cheng)部分。今天，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)部門(men)與(yu)(yu)市場經濟的(de)(de)需求(qiu)已經非常接近，更(geng)加多元(yuan)化，融(rong)(rong)入世界的(de)(de)程度更(geng)高，受到更(geng)好(hao)的(de)(de)監管，并有能力(li)為中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)充裕的(de)(de)儲(chu)蓄提(ti)供中(zhong)(zhong)介服(fu)務，但挑(tiao)(tiao)戰依然存在。她指出(chu)，第一項(xiang)關(guan)鍵挑(tiao)(tiao)戰是維護金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)部門(men)的(de)(de)穩定(ding)。自從全球金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)危機爆(bao)發以來，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)部門(men)支持政府的(de)(de)經濟刺激方案。

       在增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)與(yu)就(jiu)業方面取得了良好(hao)(hao)成(cheng)效，但系統(tong)風(feng)險(xian)也(ye)隨(sui)之(zhi)上升，中(zhong)國(guo)監管當局已清楚地(di)認識到這些風(feng)險(xian)。她認為，目前中(zhong)國(guo)經濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速度超過預期，就(jiu)業增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)創紀錄，世界(jie)經濟(ji)復蘇迅速，是解決中(zhong)國(guo)金融風(feng)險(xian)的(de)良好(hao)(hao)時機。中(zhong)國(guo)經濟(ji)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)需要(yao)減少對國(guo)內刺激措施(shi)的(de)依賴(lai)，加快產業結構調整(zheng)。第二項關鍵挑戰(zhan)是改革金融部(bu)門(men)使其能(neng)夠支持中(zhong)國(guo)新的(de)發(fa)展目標。對于下一(yi)個發(fa)展階段，中(zhong)國(guo)尋(xun)求高質量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)、生產率(lv)和(he)(he)創新驅動型增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)、包(bao)容性增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)和(he)(he)更加綠(lv)色的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。要(yao)想達到生產率(lv)驅動型增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，市場應當在資源(yuan)配置中(zhong)發(fa)揮決定性作用。這一(yi)點對于金融部(bu)門(men)更為重要(yao)。

       具有(you)良好監管和發達的(de)(de)(de)資本(ben)市場、更(geng)加平(ping)衡(heng)的(de)(de)(de)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)部(bu)門(men)結構、普惠金(jin)融(rong)(rong)的(de)(de)(de)進步都十分(fen)重要。第三個關鍵(jian)挑戰(zhan)是順應國(guo)(guo)(guo)際化。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)在國(guo)(guo)(guo)際舞臺(tai)上(shang)正(zheng)發揮(hui)出與自身經(jing)濟實力相(xiang)匹配的(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)對(dui)外(wai)(wai)投資已經(jing)在全世(shi)界發揮(hui)越來越大的(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong)。如(ru)果對(dui)外(wai)(wai)投資遵循中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)機(ji)構在國(guo)(guo)(guo)內踐行(xing)(xing)并已成為國(guo)(guo)(guo)際社會規范的(de)(de)(de)高標準，就能實現效益最大化，但中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)越來越需要考慮(lv)接受國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)債務(wu)可持續性。亞洲(zhou)開發銀行(xing)(xing)行(xing)(xing)長中(zhong)(zhong)尾武(wu)彥在中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)發展高層論壇上(shang)稱贊了過去40年中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)取(qu)得的(de)(de)(de)輝煌成就。他表示，新(xin)時代(dai)下中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)在邁向(xiang)高質量增長時面臨(lin)三大政(zheng)策挑戰(zhan)，首(shou)先是包容性，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)面臨(lin)著不平(ping)等加劇的(de)(de)(de)挑戰(zhan)。

廠家       加大(da)城鄉之間的(de)(de)流(liu)動性、改革稅(shui)收(shou)制度，促進(jin)(jin)(jin)收(shou)入(ru)再(zai)分(fen)配、教育和(he)技(ji)能(neng)發(fa)展以及促進(jin)(jin)(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)小企業發(fa)展都(dou)有(you)助于增進(jin)(jin)(jin)包(bao)容(rong)性。其次是氣候變(bian)化和(he)環(huan)境。在(zai)這(zhe)方(fang)面，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)在(zai)綠色經濟(ji)建設上已遙遙領先，并(bing)成為《巴黎(li)協(xie)定(ding)》下應對氣候變(bian)化全球行動的(de)(de)重(zhong)要參與者。是老齡化。他認為，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)老年撫養比在(zai)21世紀30年代中(zhong)(zhong)期(qi)。中(zhong)(zhong)尾(wei)武彥(yan)特別強調包(bao)容(rong)性，“已經是一個(ge)充滿(man)活力(li)(li)和(he)創新能(neng)力(li)(li)的(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)家，具有(you)持續增長的(de)(de)勢頭。與進(jin)(jin)(jin)一步實現科(ke)技(ji)發(fa)展和(he)產業轉型相比，增強社會包(bao)容(rong)性是中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)面臨(lin)的(de)(de)更(geng)大(da)挑戰。” 促進(jin)(jin)(jin)可持續包(bao)容(rong)性增長的(de)(de)前提(ti)是宏觀經濟(ji)的(de)(de)穩定(ding)性和(he)市場的(de)(de)有(you)效(xiao)性。

       近(jin)日，財(cai)政(zheng)部印發《關(guan)于做(zuo)好2018年(nian)(nian)地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)管(guan)(guan)理工作的通(tong)(tong)知》。《通(tong)(tong)知》強調，要依法(fa)規(gui)(gui)范(fan)地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)限額(e)管(guan)(guan)理和預算管(guan)(guan)理，建立(li)健全(quan)“舉(ju)債(zhai)(zhai)必問(wen)效、無效必問(wen)責”的政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)資金績效管(guan)(guan)理機制(zhi)(zhi)；著(zhu)力(li)強化債(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)風險監測和防范(fan)，進(jin)一步(bu)強化地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)管(guan)(guan)理，堅決制(zhi)(zhi)止和查處(chu)各類違(wei)法(fa)違(wei)規(gui)(gui)或(huo)變相(xiang)(xiang)舉(ju)債(zhai)(zhai)行為。《通(tong)(tong)知》要求，要及時完(wan)成存(cun)(cun)量地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)置(zhi)換(huan)(huan)工作。財(cai)政(zheng)部相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)負責人介紹，截至2017年(nian)(nian)底，累計(ji)置(zhi)換(huan)(huan)存(cun)(cun)量政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)10.9萬(wan)億元(yuan)(yuan)，地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)余額(e)14.74萬(wan)億元(yuan)(yuan)，占地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)余額(e)近(jin)90%，累計(ji)為地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)(fu)節約(yue)利息支出約(yue)1.2萬(wan)億元(yuan)(yuan)。

       緩解了(le)存量政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債務集中到期(qi)償還風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，避免了(le)地(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)資(zi)金鏈(lian)斷裂，降(jiang)低了(le)金融(rong)(rong)系(xi)統呆壞賬損失，支持(chi)了(le)金融(rong)(rong)機(ji)構化解系(xi)統性(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)。2018年(nian)，財政(zheng)部將繼續(xu)指導各地(di)做(zuo)好存量政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債務置換相關工(gong)作(zuo)，各地(di)加快存量政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債務置換進(jin)度，確保(bao)(bao)在國家(jia)明確的期(qi)限內完成置換工(gong)作(zuo)；強(qiang)化置換債券(quan)(quan)資(zi)金管(guan)理，確保(bao)(bao)嚴(yan)格按規定用途使用債券(quan)(quan)資(zi)金。在加強(qiang)債務風(feng)(feng)險(xian)監測和(he)防范(fan)方(fang)(fang)面，各地(di)健全地(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)性(xing)債務風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)和(he)預警(jing)機(ji)制(zhi)，督(du)促高風(feng)(feng)險(xian)地(di)區(qu)采取(qu)有效(xiao)措施逐(zhu)步化解風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；發揮地(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)財政(zheng)重整計劃(hua)作(zuo)用，督(du)促相關高風(feng)(feng)險(xian)地(di)區(qu)恢復財政(zheng)收支平衡狀態。要(yao)進(jin)一步強(qiang)化地(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債券(quan)(quan)管(guan)理。要(yao)求(qiu)各地(di)將地(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債券(quan)(quan)發行。

       使(shi)(shi)用與(yu)(yu)公(gong)益(yi)性(xing)建設項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)對應，實(shi)現債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)資金使(shi)(shi)用與(yu)(yu)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)管理、償債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)責任相(xiang)匹配，以及債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)期限(xian)(xian)與(yu)(yu)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)期限(xian)(xian)相(xiang)匹配；穩步(bu)推(tui)進(jin)地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)專(zhuan)項(xiang)(xiang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)管理改革，繼續推(tui)進(jin)發(fa)行土地(di)(di)儲備和政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)收(shou)費(fei)公(gong)路專(zhuan)項(xiang)(xiang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)，擴大項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)收(shou)益(yi)和與(yu)(yu)融資自求平(ping)衡的地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)專(zhuan)項(xiang)(xiang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)試點范圍(wei)；積極(ji)探索試點發(fa)行項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)收(shou)益(yi)專(zhuan)項(xiang)(xiang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)。完(wan)善(shan)地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)本金償還機制；大力發(fa)展地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)市(shi)場，推(tui)動地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)投資主(zhu)體多元化，完(wan)善(shan)地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)市(shi)場化定價機制。還要求，要及時公(gong)開(kai)地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)務概況，包(bao)括本地(di)(di)區(qu)地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)務限(xian)(xian)額、余額、期限(xian)(xian)、用途等(deng)信息，并完(wan)善(shan)地(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)券(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)信息披(pi)露(lu)機制。

廠家(jia)       對中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)而(er)言，中(zhong)(zhong)美是風暴的中(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)，中(zhong)(zhong)美貿易(yi)戰風險(xian)可能(neng)同樣打擊A股的風險(xian)偏好、致使(shi)股票市(shi)場波動(dong)。此外，貿易(yi)戰影響(xiang)出(chu)口需求(qiu)和(he)(he)經(jing)濟增長速(su)度預期，對債(zhai)券(quan)市(shi)場產生(sheng)一定的利好作用，有利于10年國(guo)債(zhai)收益率回落。產業和(he)(he)基本面方面，我國(guo)高(gao)科技領域產品的出(chu)口和(he)(he)投資、發(fa)展(zhan)前景可能(neng)都受到一定的抑制。美國(guo)貿易(yi)代表(biao)處(chu)特(te)別(bie)指出(chu)的《中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)制造》中(zhong)(zhong)強調(diao)發(fa)展(zhan)的十大行(xing)業主要包括(kuo)：新一代信(xin)息技術、自動(dong)執行(xing)功能(neng)的高(gao)檔數控機床和(he)(he)工(gong)業機器人、航(hang)空航(hang)天設(she)備、海洋(yang)工(gong)程裝(zhuang)備、高(gao)技術船舶、新能(neng)源裝(zhuang)備、農(nong)業、農(nong)機裝(zhuang)備、新材料、生(sheng)物醫藥和(he)(he)高(gao)性(xing)能(neng)醫療器械。